Project D2: Carbon Scenario Analysis for Land Management Change

 Project Leader:   Dr Michael Hill            

Research objectives

• develop & calibrate models to analyse the effects of alternative land management practices on carbon stocks in agricultural, forest and rangeland ecosystems
• develop a scenario analysis system for rapid appraisal of alternative management options on carbon stocks and fluxes in agricultural, forest and rangeland ecosystems and continue testing in selected study regions
• use the system developed to quantify the effects of alternative land management options on carbon stocks and fluxes for the rangelands, NE NSW and extend application to SW WA.

Relevance

This task is proposed in order to quantify the extent to which additional activities in managed native forest and plantation ecosystems, crop lands and grazing lands (Article 3.4) might meet Australian greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. The task would also provide the capacity for rapid analysis of the potential benefits and risks associated with agricultural and natural resource management strategies.The project seeks to service the immediate and short-term requirements of the CRC and policy clients.

The scenario analysis framework as represented by the ASSESS interface may be used in workshops with policy clients and as part of hands-on practical experience in the CRC’s short course education program. Work on the selected study regions is carried out in collaboration with state agency CRC partners and is partly designed to service their needs as the major land and vegetation managers.

Strategy

Relationships are to be developed between biophysical conditions, management systems and carbon stocks in different land use types. Modelling capability is to be developed to complement and integrate with other CRC modelling activities. Modelling work is proposed to focus on application of the Century model to scenario analysis for agricultural management effects on soil carbon, and development of the linkages forest model for incorporation of stand age, litter dynamics and forest management into scenario analysis. Interactions with socio-economic and cultural factors that influence the adoption of management strategies is proposed to also be explored.

A central core of medium term work is proposed to develop capacity and skills for scenario analysis. Research results from other CRC projects and external activities such as the National Land and Water Audit are to be incorporated as they become available. Modelling is to be collaborative with other CRC projects and integrated through liaison with Project C.1.

Outcomes

• an analysis of potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands, crop lands, grazing lands and forests with different management scenario.
• an analytical tool set comprising models and spatial interface for application to case study analysis
• analysis of the effects of management on above- and below-ground carbon
• analysis of risks and benefits from management change to improve C sequestration in grazing and cropping lands.