Project B5   Projecting change in the C and N cycle

NB: This is a newly proposed project and the precise scope has not been fully identified. It will not commence until well into 2002.

Project Leader: To be announced in 2002

• Sub-project 5.1: Decision Support Tool Development
• Sub-project 5.2: Methane Objectives
• Sub-project 5.3: Nitrous Oxide Objectives

Overview

Emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are influenced by land use, land-use change and forestry activities (e.g.restoration of wetlands, biomass burning, and fertilisation of forests). Hence, to assess the greenhouse gas implications of LULUCF activities, changes in CH4 and N20 emissions and removals - the magnitude of which is highly uncertain - would have to be considered explicitly. There are currently no reliable global estimates.

For technical reasons, only emissions and removals of CO2 can be determined directly as changes in carbon stocks. Methane emissions and removals cannot in practice be directly measured as carbon stock changes, although CH4 and N20 may be determined by other means. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from many land-use activities are included in Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol (e.g., rice cultivation, enteric fermentation, and agricultural soils) and in the Revised 1996 IPCC Reporting Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and therefore they will be captured in national inventories.

This is not the case, however, for emissions of these gases related to forestry activities and projects, which are not included in Annex A, although some of these forestry activities are discussed in the 1996 Revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. If the net emissions of CH4 and N20 are not considered, the full climate impact of forestry activities may not be reflected in the accounting system under the Kyoto Protocol.

The treatment of CH4 and N20 emissions under Article 3.3 may deserve further consideration and clarification. For agreed activities, Article 3.4 leaves open how net greenhouse gas emissions will be accounted for in meeting the commitments under Article 3.1 of the Protocol.

Sub-project 5.1: Decision Support Tool Development

Research objectives

• Develop a Greenhouse Gas Inventory framework (Decision Support Tool) to assess greenhouse impact on dairy farms and guide fixture R, D and E investment;
• Develop best management practice guidelines for reducing greenhouse emissions from Australian dairy farms, and
• Identify strategic research priorities to improve key assumptions in the framework.

Outputs

• A greenhouse audit of the National Dairy farmlet trials and selected dairy farms, providing industry with a greenhouse profile of a wide range of dairy production systems.

Sub-project 5.2: Methane

Research objectives

• Reducing uncertainty in methane accounting from agriculture, and in particular enteric methane emissions from temperate grazing systems;
• Quantifying the potential impact of improved grazing management systems on enteric methane production, and the potential impact of:
  • dietary manipulation on enteric methane production.
  • improved grazing management systems on enteric methane production; and
  • dietary manipulation on enteric methane production

Sub-project 5.3: Nitrous Oxide Objectives

• Reducing uncertainty in nitrous oxide accounting from agriculture, and in particular nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated grazing systems;
• Identifying the process responsible for nitrous oxide production (nitrification versus denitrification) and factors which influence nitrous oxide to di-nitrogen ratios in agricultural systems;
• Quantifying the potential impact of improved nitrogen fertiliser and water management on nitrous oxide emissions.

Expected outcomes

• A more ‘greenhouse aware' and accountable agricultural industry.
• Potential for improved nitrogen cycling efficiency through reduced denitrification and nitrous oxide loss off farm.
• Farmers and industry equipped with decision support tools and best management practice guidelines, empowering them to explore alternative production systems and to minimise risks and maximise benefits associated with greenhouse and carbon trading.
• Reduced threat of carbon tax and maximising the benefits of carbon credit trading to the Australian farming industries.
• Protection of export markets through reduced threat of `greenhouse trade barriers'.