Project B.3  Ecosystem Vulnerability to Change

• Team Members
• Objectives
• Strategy
• Relevance
• Outputs
• Outcomes
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Research objectives

• Estimate Net Biome Productivity (NBP) & carbon emission for selected Australian ecosystems inclusive of landscape-scale processes.
• Assess vulnerability of Australian landscape ecosystems & potential impacts on the carbon cycle.
• Quantify contribution of landscape-scale processes to the estimation of national carbon accounts.

Strategy

Calculation of NBP is fraught with difficulties, as it demands consideration of various landscape-scale processes over decadal time periods. Relevant landscape-scale processes include land use, catchment hydrology, and fire. Given the time periods needed to assessing NBP, it follows that vegetation successional trends must also be considered. Furthermore, landscape ecosystems can be expected to respond in complex ways to the accelerated greenhouse effect.

The basic research strategy for this project involves development of a dynamic landscape model capable of simulating NBP, inclusive of the processes noted above. The approach being taken is to systematically and progressively develop and apply a new dynamic landscape-scale NBP simulation tool

Ongoing research is investigating the vulnerability of these landscape ecosystems to the accelerated greenhouse effect, with respect to the carbon cycle, biodiversity and water yield. This research will involve, inter alia, modelling how fires regimes may change in response to future climate scenarios.

Relevance

The significance of landscape-scaled processes in determining NBP is currently poorly quantified. It is therefore not yet possible to specify the optimum scale at which carbon accounting models should operate. We aim to provide clear guidelines as to the error associated with omitting from carbon accounts the effects of specific landscape-scale processes. This project will therefore make a significant contribution to bounding the error and quantifying the variability around continental scaled carbon accounts (see Project B2).

Outputs

• New computer-based generic methods and tools for assessing NBP and ecosystem vulnerability.
• Bounded statistical estimates of the contribution of landscape processes to continental scaled carbon accounts.

Outcomes

• New understanding of the vulnerability of Australian ecosystems to future climate patterns.