January/February 2003

Last month Dennis Ringrose introduced himself as the CRC Communication Manager to readers and subscribers of e-Carbon News. Sadly, Dennis has taken ill and consequently has resigned from the CRC. We are in the process of recruiting a new communication manager (see http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/ecarbon/PositionCM.htm).

In other changes for the CRC Martin Schutz the Centre’s Business Manager has also resigned, again due to health problems.

We wish both Dennis and Martin all the very best. In the meantime thanks to Karen Mobbs for bringing this edition of eCarbon News to you.

Chris Mitchell
CEO

In this issue:

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CRC NEWS

CRC Researcher named as member of Australia’s Science ‘Mapping’ Reference Group
Tuesday, February 11, 2003

Professor Graham Farquhar is to be a member of a new Reference Group charged with overseeing the mapping of Australia’s science and innovation activities across the public and private sectors. He is one of 17 members of the Science ‘Mapping’ Reference Group announced by the Hon Dr Brendan Nelson MP, Minister for Education, Science and Training.

The Reference Group, to be chaired by Australia’s Chief Scientist, Dr Robin Batterham, will play an important advisory role on the mapping’s scope and methodology and will be responsible for guiding the development of the draft and final reports. The complex mapping exercise will identify key strengths and weaknesses – highlighting those areas in Australia's science and innovation landscape that should be maintained and developed as well as noting any gaps which need to be addressed.

Press release: http://www.dest.gov.au/ministers/nelson/feb_03/n276_110203.htm
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UK expert here to study how bushfires affect climate change
CRC Media Release - 17 January 2003

Rural sector to save $110M a year through new CRC research program
CRC Media Release - 10 December

AUSTRALIAN NEWS

Commonwealth urged to sign Kyoto treaty
From: ABC News Online
Tuesday, February 18, 2003

The Federal Government is again being urged to change its position on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and sign up to the Kyoto protocol.

A report sponsored by the New South Wales, Victorian and South Australian governments shows the cost to the local economy of not ratifying the agreement is higher than what it would be if Australia commits to the reduction targets within the treaty guidelines.

New South Wales Premier Bob Carr says the Federal Government is becoming increasingly isolated because of its decision not to ratify the agreement.

"Business is changing its view on Kyoto, I think business is far more enlightened than the Federal Government," he said.

The Australian Conservation Foundation
The Australian Conservation Foundation says the release of a new report today has revealed the economic cost to Australia of not signing the protocol.

The foundation's executive director, Don Henry, says Australia and the US are the only two developed countries who have not signed.

"I think now that this report clearly shows that it's in our economic and environmental interest to ratify," he said.

"One just has to assume our Federal Government is blindly following the anti-Kyoto stance of President Bush in the US."

A spokeswoman for Federal Environment Minister David Kemp says the report will not influence the Government's position on the protocol.

She says the Federal Government believes the protocol is deeply flawed because it does not include many developing countries, which are among the biggest polluters.

http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s786282.htm

More time needed: Qld
The Queensland Government has rebuffed calls to sign the Kyoto Protocol.

Last year Queensland Premier Peter Beattie said the situation was not that simple - today he says nothing has changed

"It's easy to say sign up to Kyoto if you're not disadvantaged and I know Bob Carr is a very committed environmentalist, and so am I, and so is Steve Bracks but the two states that suffer as a result of it are Queensland and Western Australia," he said.

"All I've asked for is time, I believe in the long run we will comply with any Kyoto agreements."

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Towards Sustainable Energy
CRC Association Press Release
Tuesday, February 18, 2003

Australia's future prosperity will depend on a 50 per cent increase in energy output over the next 20 years. Scientists from the nation's Co-operative Research Centres are working to achieve that growth cleanly and sustainably.

Up to one million tonnes of CO2 could be buried in a saline reservoir deep underground, as part of a national experiment to demonstrate that it is possible to largely eliminate Australia's industrial greenhouse emissions.

The new CRC for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) is planning a major demonstration of the large-scale disposal of CO2, to see if it is possible to 'lock up' greenhouse gases in the sub-surface and keep an eye on them, says Executive Director Dr Peter Cook.

"Australia has sufficient underground capacity to potentially store our total emissions for the next 2000 years. We want to be sure it is safe, secure, practical and economic to do so," he says.

Technologies to reduce greenhouse emissions from power generation using southern Australia's vast reserves of brown coal - or lignite - are under development at CRC for Clean Power from Lignite (http://www.cleanpower.com.au/).

"Contrary to what many people imagine, brown coal is a very clean fuel. The problem is that it contains 60-70 per cent water - and dealing with that requires a lot of extra energy," CRC CEO Dr David Brockway explains.

The CRC is developing a technology for heating and squeezing the coal which will cut the need for extra energy to evaporate the water content by up to 90 per cent. This in turn will substantially lower greenhouse emissions.

"This work perfectly complements the research of the CO2CRC, and puts Australia squarely on the route to zero greenhouse emissions from power generation," Dr Brockway says.

Remote indigenous communities will manage their own power supplies under the Australian CRC for Renewable Energy's Bushlight Program (http://www.bushlight.org.au/)

Bushlight is delivering tailored renewable energy - mainly solar and some wind power - to up to 200 small communities living in remote areas.

"We're using energy as a driver for other community goals, such as improved health or job opportunities," says ACRE managing director Dr Frank Reid. "We help communities to plan and manage their own energy needs, to have control over the power supply and usage patterns. The social side is as important as the technology,"

The technology too is world class, having been vetted in ACRE-Lab, Australia's only facility for testing renewable energy equipment to world standards.

A recent study shows that Australia's sustainable energy industry now comprises more than 2,100 companies earning $3.4 billion a year, making an overall economic contribution of $10 billion and creating 58,000 Australian jobs. Direct employment by the industry is estimated at 17,000.

Web site: www.crca.asn.au
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Planning for zero greenhouse emissions
CSIRO Press Release
Wednesday, February 5, 2003

Energy scientists from CSIRO are teaming up with the Central Victorian Greenhouse Alliance (CVGA) of local organisations in a bid to eliminate the region's net greenhouse emissions by 2020.

A major workshop, "Down with Emissions", opens today in Bendigo to explore projects that can demonstrate ways to cut energy costs, reduce emissions, and improve power generation and distribution.

Full story: http://www.csiro.au/page.asp?type=mediaRelease&id=Prenergyzero
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Robots to monitor southern ocean and climate
CSIRO Press Release
Wednesday, January 22, 2003

Australian scientists are preparing to make their largest investment yet to monitor the engine-room of global climate, the Southern Ocean's Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

In the next three years, a total of 44 robotic floats will be deployed south of Australia by scientists from the CRC for Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems and CSIRO.

Full story: http://www.csiro.au/page.asp?type=mediaRelease&id=Procean4
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AMA calls on Government to ratify Kyoto Protocol on public health grounds
Australian Medical Association Press Release
Thursday, December 12, 2002

The AMA has written to all Federal Parliamentarians urging them to support the signing of the Kyoto Protocol on public health grounds.

Public health concerns – including water quality, heat related illnesses, mosquito-borne diseases – were highlighted at the AMA’s National Environmental Health Summit in Melbourne last month.

AMA President, Dr Kerryn Phelps, said Australia and its region must plan now to deal with the future health consequences of global warming.

“Human induced climate change and its impact on environmental health is a major emerging international health issue.” Dr Phelps said.

“Unless we initiate action now, we will have major health problems in the coming decades, many of which have the potential to cripple our public health system.”

“We can expect an increase in the incidence of infectious diseases such as Dengue fever, encephalitis and epidemic polyarthritis, along with increased infection and illness related to contaminated food and water.”

“Better health for Australians in the future requires immediate action to reduce greenhouse emissions, and the best way to achieve this is for Australia to support the Kyoto Protocol,” Dr Phelps said.

Dr Phelp’s speech to the AMA Environmental Health Summit on 14 November 2002: http://www.ama.com.au/web.nsf/doc/WEEN-5GA2YE

WORLD NEWS

Oh Yeah Canada
From: Grist Magazine
Wednesday, December 11, 2002

Canada's House of Commons voted overwhelmingly in favor of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol yesterday, concluding months of rancorous debate and paving the way for a concerted international effort to curb emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases.

A triumphant Prime Minister Jean Chretien, who staked a fair bit of political capital on Kyoto, will sign Canada's official ratification by the end of the year. Though it had no legal impact, the House of Commons vote was an important symbolic gesture of support for the treaty in a country where Alberta provincial leaders and segments of the business community have vociferously opposed limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Also yesterday, on the other side of the globe, New Zealand ratified the protocol.

http://www.gristmagazine.com/daily/daily121102.asp
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UNFCCC press release
BONN, December 18, 2002

Canada's ratification of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change brings the agreement's total membership to 100.

To enter into force the Protocol now requires only the ratification of the Russian Federation. The Russian Parliament is expected to act within the next several months.

"Achieving the symbolic threshold of 100 ratifications demonstrates that the Kyoto Protocol has widespread international support," said Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, under which the Protocol was adopted.

"Most industrialized countries are now on board and have cemented their commitment to reversing the historical rise in greenhouse gas emissions that started with the Industrial Revolution. But these countries have only 10 more years to meet their Kyoto emissions targets - and the evidence today is that most of them still have a great deal of work to do to reduce their greenhouse gases," she said.

Ms. Waller-Hunter also pointed to the large number of developing countries that had ratified the Protocol. She said this was "a sign of their commitment to the Protocol as an instrument of global cooperation to address a global problem".

The Kyoto Protocol establishes a "double trigger" for entry into force. The first trigger is ratification by 55 governments - a requirement that was met earlier this year. The second trigger is that the ratifying governments must include developed countries representing at least 55% of that group's 1990 carbon dioxide emissions.

With the receipt of Canada's ratification, and that of Poland on 13 December, developed country ratifications now account for 43.7% of 1990 CO2 emissions (as determined in 1997 when the Protocol was adopted). Russia's 17.4% will be essential for pushing the tally over the required 55% limit.

Japan as well as the European Union and its member states have already ratified. Aside from Russia, ratification is also pending in about a half dozen, mostly smaller, industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition; all of these countries together, however, are not sufficient for reaching the 55% mark. Australia and the US have stated that they will not join the Protocol.

The Protocol commits developed countries to reducing their collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by the period 2008-2112. The individual targets are 8% for Switzerland, most Central and East European states, and the European Union (the EU has distributed different rates among its member states); and 6% for Canada, Hungary, Japan, and Poland. Russia, New Zealand, and Ukraine are to stabilize their emissions, while Norway may increase emissions by up to 1%, and Iceland 10%. The US had agreed to a -7 % target and Australia to +8%.

http://unfccc.int/press/prel2002/pressrel181202.pdf

Readers are reminded that they can track the status of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on:
http://unfccc.int/resource/kpthermo.html
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Credit where credit is due
From: Grist Magazine
Friday, December 6, 2002

The Kyoto Protocol on climate change has not yet gone into effect, but the first sale of greenhouse gas credits negotiated within the treaty's proposed framework is officially a done deal. Slovakia (of all places) has sold emissions credits equivalent to 200,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide to a Japanese trading house, which declined to reveal either the identity of the buyer or the value of the deal. However, experts say the amount of CO2 in question would have been worth $1 million if it had been sold on an emissions market outside of the Kyoto framework. The trade in greenhouse gases enables companies that can't reduce their emissions below specified levels to buy credits from industries that can, or from eco-right-on projects such as wind farms or reforestation efforts. If Kyoto is approved, the market could reach $60 billion per year. Meanwhile, in other global-warming news, a three-day conference in the U.S. concluded yesterday with experts saying that the Bush administration plan to study climate change for many more years is unlikely to result in significant new information unless the proposal is substantially revised and better funded.

http://www.gristmagazine.com/daily/daily120602.asp
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Scientists Say Climate Change Threatens Biodiversity
By Dan Whipple, United Press International
Tuesday, February 18, 2003

DENVER: Climate change already is causing serious detrimental effects on biological systems in Africa, the Andes and the oceans worldwide, scientists studying these areas warned late Monday.

Thomas Lovejoy, president of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment in Washington, D.C., said there will come a point at which carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere will cause "serious biological disruption, and the emerging picture...suggests these disruptions will occur slightly this side of double pre-industrial CO2 (carbon dioxide) levels."

Speaking in Denver at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Lovejoy said that while deciphering the impacts of climate change was no simple matter, it appeared that ecosystems were among the most sensitive to its effects.

"There needs to be debate about the acceptable levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," he suggested.

Lovejoy later told United Press International that acceptable levels should be set "at the rate at which ecosystems can adapt naturally."

"If there are concentrations where the ecosystem cannot adapt, that's where you set the limit," he said.

Nonetheless, discussion about the acceptable level of greenhouse gas concentrations is "barely on the agenda," Lovejoy said.

Evidence of the effects climate change is having on living things in the world's biodiversity "hotspots" is accumulating. Scientists have identified 25 such hotspots -- areas on the planet that contain about 40 percent of the world's species within about 1.5 percent of its land surface.

In half of the species the scientists modeled, habitat lost to climate change in the next 50 years will be greater than all the land lost to agricultural clearing to date.

Lara Hansen, senior scientist for the World Wildlife Fund in Washington, pointed to a global coral-bleaching event in1998 that affected 90 percent of the world's coral; in some areas, the recovery rate has been as low as 10 percent.

Since 1980, she noted, "We've had more bleaching events than ever, and on a larger scale."

Corals live very close to their maximum thermal tolerance, Hansen told UPI, and when that maximum is exceeded, the dinoflagellates -- microscopic animals that live within the coral and one of the chief constituents of plankton -- either die or leave the area, taking their color with them. Dinoflagellates also provide energy for the coral through photosynthesis, so if they are absent long enough, the coral will die as well. "If they aren't re-colonized by the dinoflagellates," Hansen explained, "they don't recover."

Lee Hannah, climate change biologist for Conservation International, also in Washington, said climate change represents a major threat to the biodiversity of the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa.

The Cape Floristic Province is "one of the world's floral kingdoms (but also) the smallest," Hannah said.

"In an area of only 74,000 square kilometers, 8,200 plant species are found ...5,682 of which are found nowhere else in the world," Hannah said.

However, at the projected levels of climate change, Hannah said, "two-thirds of the current species will lose all their present range -- or be forced to move tens or hundreds of kilometers -- even within double pre-industrial CO2 concentrations." Mark Bush, of the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, predicted that the most threatened of the world's biodiversity hotspots by climate change would be the Andes.

"We must not only conserve lands in the region," Bush urged, "but we must also conserve climate areas."

The Andes are a complex hydrological system, he explained, in which the cloud forest migrates upslope. If climate change forces warmer areas upslope, then "the richest floral and faunal areas will be compressed into narrower and narrower zones." To date, the extinction of only one Andes species -- the golden toad of the Costa Rican cloud forests -- has been attributed directly to global climate change.
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Coal fires are 'global catastrophe'
By Jonathan Amos, BBC News Online
Friday, February 14, 2003

Hundreds of coal fires are burning out of control around the world, pumping huge quantities of carbon dioxide and pollutants into the atmosphere.

The problem was described as a "global catastrophe" on Thursday by researchers at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's (AAAS) annual meeting in Denver.

They said that putting out the fires in China alone would cut CO2 emissions equivalent to the volume produced by all US automobiles in a year.

"We need to get the word out to people to explain to them just what a problem this is," said Glenn Stracher of East Georgia College.

Climate change
Satellites are now being used to try to gauge the scale of the worldwide problem. In China in particular, this is helping the authorities detect and monitor the fires in the northern regions of the country.

The remote sensing data are being used to explore how such fires evolve and what the best approaches might be for extinguishing them.

Curbing coal fires could be a way of mitigating the effects of climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. Some estimates suggest the Chinese fires could be accounting for as much as 2-3% of the annual world emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

Full story: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2003/denver_2003/2759983.stm
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U.S. firms set greenhouse gas targets in Bush Plan
By Chris Baltimore, Reuters
Thursday, February 13, 2003

U.S. utilities, automakers, oil refiners, and other industries said Wednesday they will voluntarily trim carbon dioxide emissions, drawing praise from the Bush administration and sighs from environmentalists who say it is not enough to reduce heat-trapping gases.

Full story: http://www.enn.com/news/2003-02-13/s_2645.asp
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New strategies needed to tackle global warming, Britain says
By Sue Leeman, Associated Press
Wednesday, February 12, 2003

LONDON -- Britain's climate is set to heat up faster than at any time in the past 10,000 years, thanks to record global temperatures and soaring emissions of greenhouse gases, the government warned Tuesday.

Full story: http://www.enn.com/news/2003-02-12/s_2626.asp
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Squirrels show genetic response to warming: Canadian study
From: CBC News Online
Wednesday, February 12, 2003

EDMONTON - Furry red squirrels in the Yukon are breeding earlier in the season. Researchers say it's living proof that mammals are changing their genetic makeup in response to global climate change.

University of Alberta biology Prof. Stan Boutin has been studying the DNA and mating habits of 5,000 female red squirrels that were tagged in southwest Yukon.

Over 10 years, his team found that as spring came earlier, so did the squirrels' litters. They now give birth three weeks earlier than previous records.

Boutin said the change in population structure of wild animals is a genetic response to an unnatural pressure.

"We've been the first to show that this is a genetic change, along with behavioural changes, and not just behavioural change," said Boutin.

The genetic component is what sets his research apart from earlier studies on how mammals have responded to global climate change.

Full story:
http://archives.cbc.ca/
http://cbc.ca/storyview/CBC/2003/02/12/squirrels_climate030212
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A fading green hope for climate
By Betsy Carpenter, U.S. News & World Report
Monday, February 10, 2003

It was a comforting dream while it lasted: Carbon dioxide spewed into the air from tailpipes and smokestacks would speed up the growth of forests. The forests in turn would store the carbon in wood and soil, staving off climate change. The theory even undergirded the Kyoto Protocol, which allows countries to meet greenhouse gas targets by planting trees as well as by trimming industrial emissions. But the latest research has delivered an unpleasant wake-up call.

Plants need carbon dioxide for photosynthesis and growth, so it wasn't unreasonable to imagine that rising carbon dioxide levels would act as a planetary fertilizer. In 1996, a team of researchers led by biogeochemist William Schlesinger of Duke University began testing the theory. They pumped tons of carbon dioxide daily from towers rising over an experimental forest of loblolly pines outside Chapel Hill, N.C. Meters measured gases entering and leaving the pine needles; bands on the tree trunks assessed their month-to-month growth. The initial results were reassuring: When the researchers increased ambient levels of the gas by about 50 percent, to levels expected by midcentury, tree growth jumped by up to 25 percent.

But the longer they studied the forest, the more complicated the picture looked. For starters, the growth spurt lasted just four years. Later, the trees settled back to growing only about 6 percent faster than their neighbors. "The trees quickly run down key nutrients in the soil," explains Schlesinger. Trees grown in carbon-dioxide-enriched air also compensated by pumping more of the carbon down through their roots to microbes in the soil. Instead of storing the carbon in the soil as humus, these organisms released much of it back into the air as carbon dioxide.

After seven years amid the loblolly pines, Schlesinger has concluded that we can't rely on the forests of the future to store our excess carbon dioxide. "I would count on nothing," he says flatly. To some scientists, that's an argument for taking matters into our own hands and looking for ways to bury the gas. To Schlesinger, though, it underscores the hazards of tinkering with natural systems. He thinks that the best solution to global warming is to burn less coal, oil, and natural gas. "Rather than trying to gather up marbles that have spilled, let's not spill 'em in the first place."
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3 States will sue EPA over emissions
By David Abel, The Boston Globe
Friday, January 31, 2003

Arguing that the Bush administration is jeopardizing the health of its residents and violating clean-air laws by failing to regulate carbon dioxide emissions, attorneys general from Massachusetts, Maine, and Connecticut yesterday announced they are suing the US Environmental Protection Agency.

In the first suit of its kind filed by state governments, Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly and his colleagues, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Steven Rowe of Maine, argue that carbon dioxide should be added to the list of pollutants regulated under the Clean Air Act. Carbon dioxide, a gas that occurs naturally but is also emitted by burning fossil fuels, is the biggest contributor to global warming.

In a seven-page letter to EPA administrator Christine Todd Whitman, the attorneys general argued that the agency is legally obliged to add carbon dioxide to its list of regulated air pollutants. They gave her a 60-day notice of their intent to sue.

''Carbon dioxide emissions will likely cause or contribute to wide-ranging, adverse changes to just about every aspect of the environment, public health and welfare throughout the Northeast,'' the attorneys general wrote in their letter.

EPA officials declined to comment yesterday.

The suit, based on a 1976 precedent-setting case, was announced only two days after President Bush called for action on his ''Clear Skies'' initiative during his State of the Union address. The effort promises mandatory reductions in three power-plant pollutants, but not carbon dioxide.

If passed by Congress, Clear Skies would reduce emissions of mercury, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide by 70 percent over the next 15 years. The pollutants are blamed for thousands of premature deaths each year and contribute to haze across the country.

The ''US Climate Action Report 2002,'' an EPA report sent to the United Nations, projects that greenhouse-gas emissions, or carbon dioxide produced from the burning of fossil fuels, will increase 43 percent by 2020.

''In the face of continued inaction, we, at the state level, have no choice but to use the remedies available to us to fill the void left at the federal level,'' Reilly said. ''We need to begin tackling this problem today.''

In Massachusetts, lawmakers have passed legislation that requires carbon dioxide reductions by power plants. In New Hampshire, lawmakers have adopted ''cap and trade'' legislation to cut emissions. Last summer, California's Legislature passed a bill to achieve the ''maximum feasible'' reductions of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles.
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Senators McCain & Lieberman Launch Bi-Partisan Attack on Global Warming
From: Natural Resources Defense Council
Tuesday, January 7, 2003

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) are introducing comprehensive, market-based legislation tomorrow to reduce global warming pollution throughout the U.S. economy. The McCain/Lieberman bill is the broadest in a series of Congressional efforts to control carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping pollutants, and reflects growing political concern within both parties about the global warming issue.

The legislation follows news that 2002 was the second warmest year ever recorded (see press release on the World Meteorological Organization's website). Two studies published in this week's issue of the journal Nature show that global warming is already affecting ecosystems around the world.

"Leaders in both parties are recognizing public demand for action on global warming," said David Doniger, climate center policy director at NRDC (the Natural Resources Defense Council). "McCain and Lieberman are pressing forward with real, market-based solutions even as the White House continues giving the biggest polluters a free pass."

The McCain/Lieberman bill sets a nationwide cap limiting pollution from major sources in the industrial, commercial, electricity, and transportation fuel sectors, which together are responsible for nearly 80 percent of U.S. emissions. Companies must reduce their own emissions, or purchase emissions allowances from others. Starting in 2010, emissions from these sectors would be capped at 2000 levels. In 2016, the cap would be reduced to 1990 levels (the target level in the Rio climate treaty signed by the first President Bush and ratified by the Senate in 1992).

The new measure complements the Clean Power Act sponsored last year by Sen. James Jeffords (I-VT) and nearly two-dozen senators of both parties to clean up carbon dioxide and other dangerous pollutants from U.S. power plants. That bill will be reintroduced in the new Congress shortly.

"Sponsors of these bills deserve great credit for genuinely tackling global warming, in contrast to the administration's smoke and mirrors," Doniger said. "Senator McCain's leadership opens the door for Republicans to take a fresh look at this most critical environmental challenge."

The Natural Resources Defense Council is a national, nonprofit organization of scientists, lawyers and environmental specialists dedicated to protecting public health and the environment. Founded in 1970, NRDC has more than 500,000 members nationwide, served from offices in New York, Washington, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Web site: http://www.nrdc.org
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Scientists question climate change, malaria link
Thursday, December 12, 2002

LONDON — Climate change could be causing more than higher temperatures; it may also be helping to fuel a rise in malaria in East Africa, scientists said Wednesday.

Cases of the mosquito-borne disease that kills about 3,000 people a day around the world have surged in parts of the region during recent decades. Earlier research had suggested the upsurge was due to drug resistance and population growth, and not global warming.

But scientists in the United States and Britain say it may not be just a coincidence that the rise in malaria parallels East African warming trends.

Full story: http://enn.com/news/wire-stories/2002/12/12122002/reu_49165.asp
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Global Analysis Finds Nearly Half The Earth Is Still Wilderness
Many Areas, Including North America's Deserts, Under Severe Threat
From: Conservation International
Wednesday, December 4, 2002

WASHINGTON, DC - According to the most comprehensive global analysis ever conducted, wilderness areas still cover close to half the Earth's land, but contain only a tiny percentage of the world's population. More than 200 international scientists contributed to the analysis, which will be published in the book, Wilderness: Earth's Last Wild Places, (University of Chicago Press, 2003).

The 37 wilderness areas identified in the book represent 46 percent of the Earth's land surface, but are occupied by just 2.4 percent of the world's population, excluding urban centers. Nine of the wilderness areas fall, at least in part, within the United States.

Although the wilderness areas are still largely intact, they are increasingly threatened by population growth, encroaching agriculture and resource extraction activities. Barely 7 percent of the areas currently enjoy some form of protection.

Nineteen of the wilderness areas have remarkably low population densities - an average of less than one person per square kilometer. Excluding urban centers, these 19 areas represent 38 percent of the Earth's land surface, but hold only 0.7 percent of the planet's population.

"These very low density areas represent a landmass equivalent to the six largest countries on Earth combined - Russia, Canada, China, the United States, Brazil and Australia - but have within them the population of only three large cities, a truly remarkable finding," said co-author Russell Mittermeier, President of Conservation International. "It's good news that we still have these large tracts of land largely intact and uninhabited, but these areas are increasingly under threat."

The large-format, 576-page book depicts rare species and remarkable places in more than 500 breathtaking color photographs that accompany detailed information regarding the habitat, species and cultural diversity of each wilderness area. The analysis was mainly carried out over the past two years by Conservation International's Center for Applied Biodiversity Science with support from the Global Conservation Fund.

The wilderness areas include several diverse habitats, ranging from Southern Africa's Miombo-Mopane Woodlands, with the world's largest remaining population of African elephants, to the Sonoran and Baja Californian Deserts of Arizona, California and Mexico, with their Gila woodpeckers and giant cacti, to Amazonia's rainforests, teeming with biodiversity including 30,000 endemic plant species and 122 endemic primate species and subspecies.

To qualify as "wilderness," an area has 70 percent or more of its original vegetation intact, covers at least 10,000 square kilometers (3,861 square miles) and most have fewer than five people per square kilometer.

"Wilderness areas are major storehouses of biodiversity, but just as importantly, they provide critical ecosystem services to the planet, including watershed maintenance, pollination and carbon sequestration," said Gustavo Fonseca, Executive Director of CI's Center for Applied Biodiversity Science. "As international debates on climate change and water security continue, these wilderness areas take on even greater importance."

Only five wilderness areas are considered "high-biodiversity wilderness areas," because they contain at least 1,500 endemic vascular plant species, meaning they are found nowhere else in the world. The five areas are Amazonia, the Congo Forests of Central Africa, New Guinea, the North American Deserts and the Miombo-Mopane Woodlands and Grasslands of Southern Africa.

Web site: http://www.conservation.org/xp/CIWEB/home

PUBLICATIONS - Highlights from recent literature

McNeil, B. I., R. J. Matear, et al. (2003). “Anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean based on the global chlorofluorocarbon data set.” Science 299(5604): 235-239.

In this work, environmental concentrations of CFC are used in an innovative way to estimate land-ocean partitioning in the CO2 flux. The results suggest that many models are overestimating the ocean flux, and hence, by corollary, are underestimating the terrestrial flux.

Abstract
We estimated the oceanic inventory of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) from 1980 to 1999 using a technique based on the global chlorofluorocarbon data set. Our analysis suggests that the ocean stored 14.8 petagrams of anthropogenic carbon from mid-1980 to mid-1989 and 17.9 petagrams of carbon from mid-1990 to mid-1999, indicating an oceanwide net uptake of 1.6 and 2.0 +/- 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year, respectively. Our results provide an upper limit on the solubility-driven anthropogenic CO2 flux into the ocean, and they suggest that most ocean general circulation models are overestimating oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake over the past two decades. [References: 30]
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Melillo, J. M., P. A. Steudler, et al. (2002). “Soil warming and carbon-cycle feedbacks to the climate system.” Science 298(5601): 2173-2176.

Many will recall the controversy following a Nature paper by Giardina & Ryan in 2000 that concluded that there was not a strong relation between temperature and soil respiration. In that work, they argued that it was only the labile soil C that was sensitive to temperature. Melillo and colleagues have tested this proposition experimentally and found much the same thing, i.e only the labile C was sensitive to changes in temperature.

Abstract
In a decade-long soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling in order to investigate the consequences of these changes for the climate system. Here we show that whereas soil warming accelerates soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, this response is small and short-lived for a mid-latitude forest, because of the limited size of the labile soil carbon pool. We also show that warming increases the availability of mineral nitrogen to plants. Because plant growth in many mid-latitude forests is nitrogen-limited, warming has the potential to indirectly stimulate enough carbon storage in plants to at least compensate for the carbon losses from soils. Our results challenge assumptions made in some climate models that lead to projections of large long-term releases of soil carbon in response to warming of forest ecosystems. [References: 17]
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Shaw, M. R., E. S. Zavaleta, et al. (2002). “Grassland responses to global environmental changes suppressed by elevated CO2.” Science 298(5600): 1987-1990.

Factoring out, is something policy makers want, and hence, scientists, have tried to do. The basic idea is to try and separate a C sink into different terms (i.e. factor them out) to factor out the so-called free ride (e.g. increased C sink from extra atmospheric CO2, etc.). The enormous difficultly of this task has been highlighted by work in a Californian grassland showing that while CO2 alone did stimulate NPP, CO2 in combination with other factors did not.

Abstract
Simulated global changes, including warming, increased precipitation, and nitrogen deposition, alone and in concert, increased net primary production (NPP) in the third year of ecosystem-scale manipulations in a California annual grassland. Elevated carbon dioxide also increased NPP, but only as a single-factor treatment. Across all multifactor manipulations, elevated carbon dioxide suppressed root allocation, decreasing the positive effects of increased temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition on NPP. The NPP responses to interacting global changes differed greatly from simple combinations of single-factor responses. These findings indicate the importance of a multifactor experimental approach to understanding ecosystem responses to global change. [References: 38]
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House, J. I., I. C. Prentice, et al. (2002). “Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2.” Global Change Biology 8(11): 1047-1052.

So how much difference can C sequestration actually make on the global atmospheric CO2? House and colleagues calculate that at best about 30 ppm.

Abstract
There is scope for land-use changes to increase or decrease CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere over the next century. Here we make simple but robust calculations of the maximum impact of such changes. Historical land-use changes (mostly deforestation) and fossil fuel emissions have caused an increase in atmospheric concentration of CO2 of 90 ppm between the pre-industrial era and year 2000. The projected range of CO2 concentrations in 2100, under a range of emissions scenarios developed for the IPCC, is 170-600 ppm above 2000 levels. This range is mostly due to different assumptions regarding fossil fuel emissions. If all of the carbon so far released by land-use changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere, atmospheric CO2 concentration at the end of the century would be about 40-70 ppm less than it would be if no such intervention had occurred. Conversely, complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130-290 ppm. These are extreme assumptions; the maximum feasible reforestation and afforestation activities over the next 50 years would result in a reduction in CO2 concentration of about 15-30 ppm by the end of the century. Thus the time course of fossil fuel emissions will be the major factor in determining atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the foreseeable future. [References: 33]
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Bernoux, M., V. Eschenbrenner, et al. (2002). “LULUCF-based CDM: too much ado for ... a small carbon market.” Climate Policy 2(4): 379-385

On a similar theme, Bernoux and colleagues have concluded that the C market from CDM (clean development mechanism) activities 2000-2012 will likely be very small.

Abstract
The Bonn agreement reached in July at the sixth conference of the parties (COP) to the FCCC states "that for the first commitment period, the total of additions to and subtractions from the assigned amount of a party resulting from eligible LULUCF activities under Article 12 (i.e. CDM), shall not exceed 1% of base-year emissions of that party, times five". The most probable size of this LULUCF-CDM market is analyzed in light of each Annex I party's actual and projected emissions and policies. Results show that the market size would be only about 110 Mt CO2 eq. for 2000-2012, representing a maximum global market value of about US$ 876 million. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. [References: 11]

COMING EVENTS

Remember the CRC for Greenhouse Accounting e-Carbon Calendar on:
http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/gcec/

E-mail Mario Manzano (Mario.Manzano@greenhouse.crc.org.au) if you wish to have your conference listed.

Australasian Emissions Trading Forum (AETF) Seminar
"National Emissions Trading? Responding to the COAG Energy Market Review Recommendations"

Australian Stock Exchange, Sydney - 12 March 2003

The recent COAG Review of the Australian Energy Market (The 'Parer' Review) has recommended that a national greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme be introduced as soon as possible. This seminar will discuss a range of issues that arise from this recommendation including policy design issues, sectoral impacts, international linkages and opportunities, complementary policies, energy sector responses and overseas experience. Expert speakers are from:

  • Australian Stock Exchange
  • Australian Greenhouse Office
  • ACIL Tasman Consulting
  • Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI)
  • Electricity Supply Assoc. of Aust. (ESAA)
  • E3 Consulting
  • NSW Cabinet Office
  • Energetics
  • Baker & McKenzie.

Information: http://www.aetf.net.au/topics.html?DocumentName=Events.html

The CRC for Greenhouse Accounting is a sponsor of the Australian Emissions Trading Forum.

SUSTAIN 2003 - THE WORLD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY EXHIBITION & CONFERENCE: This event will be held from 13-15 May 2003 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. For more information contact: Marc Sterel; tel: +31-20-549-1212; fax: + 31-20-549-1889; e-mail: sustain2003@rai.nl; Internet: http://www.sustain2003.com

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT: This Conference will take place from 22-24 May 2003 in Shanghai, China. Organized by the University of Shanghai for Science and Technology and George Washington University, this Conference aims to provide an international forum for discussing clean city energy and related topics. For more information contact: Liu Daoping; tel: +86-21-6568-9564; fax: +86-21-6568-0843; e-mail: dpliu@online.sh.cn; Internet: http://www.gwu.edu/%7Eeem/ICEE/firstpagenew.htm

UNFCCC SB-18: This meeting will convene from 1-12 June 2003 in Bonn, Germany. The UNFCCC Subsidiary bodies will meet to continue negotiations on the institutional and implementation aspects of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. For more information contact: UNFCCC Secretariat; tel: +49-228-815-1000; fax: +49-228-815-1999; e-mail: secretariat@unfccc.int; Internet: http://www.unfccc.int

INTERNATIONAL SOLAR ENERGY SOCIETY SOLAR WORLD CONGRESS 2003: This Congress will convene from 14-19 June 2003 in Göteborg, Sweden. The Congress' scientific programme addresses financial, environmental and policy issues relating to solar energy. There will also be three thematic days covering Solar Buildings, Solar Thermal and Solar Electricity. For more information contact: ISES; tel: +46-31-81-8220; fax: +46-31-81-8225; e-mail: ISES2003@gbg.congrex.se; Internet: http://www.congrex.com/ISES2003/

THE THIRD WORLD CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE: This Conference will take place from 29 September-3 October 2003 in Moscow, Russia. The Conference aims to address key scientific issues and policy responses to the problem of climate change. For more information contact: Conference Secretariat; tel: +95-252-0708; fax: +95-252-0708; e-mail: wccc2003@mecom.ru; Internet: http://www.meteo.ru/wccc2003/econc.htm

UNFCCC COP-9: The ninth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will convene from 1-12 December 2003 in Milan, Italy. For more information contact: UNFCCC Secretariat; tel: +49-228-815-1000; fax: +49-228-815-1999; e-mail: secretariat@unfccc.int; Internet: http://www.unfccc.int/.