January 2002

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CRC NEWS

CRC welcomes new board member
The CRC for Greenhouse Accounting is pleased to announce a new member for our Governing Board. Mrs Kate Carnell, former Chief Minister of the ACT, was welcomed by the Chairman, Sir Rupert Myers KBE AO at the Board's December 2001 meeting. A full list of Members plus the date of the next scheduled meeting is permanently available on the CRC's website at http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/aboutcrc/crc_board.htm

CRC scientist's research recognised
Recent work by Greenhouse Accounting scientist Dr David Barker, and collaborators, is featured on this month's cover of well known, international biology journal - Plant, Cell and Environment. (Vol 25, Issue 1, Jan 02, Blackwell). Publishing only the best work, Plant, Cell and Environment features original research, either theoretical or experimental, in any field of the physiology of green plants. It covers plant biochemistry,molecular biology, biophysics, cell physiology, whole plant physiology, crop physiology and physiological ecology. David joined the CRC last year from Panama where he was working with the Smithsonian Institute. His paper addresses research findings for two Yucca species in the Mojave Desert. [Info: david.barker@greenhouse.crc.org.au]

CRC Position Vacant!
A temporary research officer is required for our Carbon in Woody Vegetation Project (Sydney) for two years in the first instance. This is an interesting and challenging job for a qualified and motivated person who enjoys working with a good team. (See: CRC Website at http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/ecarbon/vacancy_0202postdoc.htm)


OTHER NEWS

Kyoto Update: COP 8 will be held in New Delhi, India from 23 October to 1 November 2002
The Seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7, 2001) negotiating the Kyoto Protocol released its report & addenda on the UNFCCC web site on Jan 21, 2002. Also available are an information note on the appointment of the Executive Secretary and the place and date of COP 8. See: http://unfccc.int/wnew/index.html

The World Meteorological Organisation's Climate Statement for 2001 at: http://www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press670.html

Science Breakthroughs of 2001
Prestigious magazine 'Science' recently announced its "Breakthroughs of 2001". Runners up included mention of achievement in carbon cycle analysis. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/294/5551/2443b [See also "New Publications Section" below].

Researchers who had been puzzling over how much CO2 is absorbed by U.S. forests and fields finally reconciled their conflicting results. The outcome will help hone estimates of how much the planet may warm in future years. A "missing sink" had to exist: Even after scientists accounted for known carbon sinks, such as the oceans, less than expected of the CO2 from burning fossil fuel remains in the atmosphere. Three years ago, researchers who put atmospheric CO2 measurements into computer models concluded that North America is an enormous sink-- big enough that plant ecosystems seemed to be sopping up most CO2 emissions. Researchers tallying carbon uptake with land surveys, however, found a much smaller sink.

This summer, the two camps published a joint study in which their results finally match up. New atmospheric analyses modelling a bigger time period--all of the 1980s--found a slightly smaller sink than before in the lower 48 U.S. states. And a more thorough ground-based tally of where the carbon goes--one that included overlooked pieces of the sink, such as decaying wood and forest soils, sediments in reservoirs, and exported wood and grains--yielded a bigger number. The result is a sink of about 0.5 petagram per year, or about one-third of current U.S. emissions. With the U.S. carbon sink firmed up, researchers now hope a similar approach will pinpoint carbon uptake in other regions, such as the tropics, where it seems to fluctuate most. The bad news: Because much of the U.S. sink is due to ecosystems recovering from past exploitation, this sponge is steadily shrinking and will taper off within 100 years.


WHATS ON THE WEB?

Public opinions of burying carbon at sea & other sequestration options
New papers from the UK Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (See: www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/working_papers.shtml).
These papers report on ongoing research and cover a range of topics including: Public opinions of burying carbon at sea and other sequestration options; Integrating models to represent climate change, mitigation and adaptation; and Analysis of the outcomes of COP meetings from The Hague to Marrakech.

The Bonn Agreement and Marrakesh Accords: an updated evaluation
(RIVM Website at http://www.rivm.nl/ieweb/ieweb/index.html)
Recent evaluation of the environmental effectiveness and economic efficiency of the Bonn Agreement and Marrakesh Accords. In total, Annex I CO2-equivalent emissions without the US will come out more than a ½ per cent below base-year level, or over 4 per cent below base-year level if CO2 removals through sinks are included. The updated evaluation underlines one of the main conclusions from RIVM's previous report that without US participation, banking large amounts of hot air is of absolute importance to improve the environmental effectiveness of the Protocol and enhance the development of a viable emissions trading market.

CO2SIM (www.co2.sim.com)
Conducting an on-line greenhouse gas emissions trading simulation on 8th February 2002. Participation in the simulation is free for non-government organisations such as universities, environmental groups and think tanks. Register and take part in the simulation via www.co2sim.com. More info contact: Craig Windram +61 (0) 7 3878 2600. CO2SIM, developers of greenhouse gas emissions trading platforms and software, will roll out a series of these on-line greenhouse gas emissions trading simulations in Australia, Europe, Canada and Japan over the next 12 months. The first simulation will be held in Australia between 12th and 14th March 2002. This simulation will be based upon rules adapted from the present US sulphur dioxide emissions trading market. A second simulation will be held in Europe between 2nd and 4th April 2002, and this simulation will be based upon the proposed European Commission directive on emissions trading.

The US Global Change Research Program (www.usgcrp.gov)
Recently updated "What's New" page with links to new material. See additions at: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/new.htm
Examples of new material: Presentations by USGCRP representatives to the American Meteorological Society, 2002; "Study Reports Slowdown in Growth of Greenhouse Emissions." Press release (2002) from US Dept of State; NOAA Climate and Global Change Program, Program Announcement; Global Carbon Cycle Element, FY 2002."; "Antarctica Gives Mixed Signals on Warming." Article (2002) from Nat. Geographic; NASA Satellite Instrument Warms up Global Cooling Theory". For direct info, contact Nick Sundt, US Global Change Research Program, nsundt@usgcrp.gov, Web: www.usgcrp.gov

Australian Agriculture and Natural Resources databases (FREE at http://www.infoscan.com.au/contents/databases.htm)
ABOA - published information on Australian agriculture/ARRIP - current research on Australian agriculture and natural resources/Streamline - published information on Australia's natural resources/Geosearch - agro-ecological regions and drainage divisions in Australia/ARRIP - completed research on Australian agriculture and natural resources/NamesNet - researcher names and addresses

NSW Bushfires images by NASA (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=6778)
Check out NASA's Earth Observatory webpage to see some unique images taken Dec 30, 2001, by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard NASA’s Terra spacecraft.


NEW PUBLICATIONS

"What Prospects for Soil Carbon Sequestration in the CDM? COP-6 and Beyond"
by Lasse Ringius, Energy and Environment vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 275-285.
Although generally supported by international experts and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), carbon (C) sequestration has long been a contentious and difficult issue in global climate negotiations. As the recent sixth Conference of the Parties (COP-6) held in The Hague in November 2000 demonstrated, the 'sinks' issue divides both the industrialized countries and the developing countries. To understand the background of the C sink controversy, and in order to assess the political acceptability of direct foreign investments in soil C sequestration in developing countries as an eligible climate policy measure, this paper briefly summarizes the main issues in the international policy debate on sinks. The paper finally analyzes the informal outcomes of COP-6 and attempts to predict the outcomes of the resumed COP-6 (COP-6 bis) to be held in July 2001. For more information, contact Lasse Ringius (lasse.ringius@risoe.dk)

"Expected contribution of sinks to the Kyoto Protocol"
by R. Sikkema, pp8, Joint Implementation Quarterly, Volume 7, 2001. Foundation JIN.
At COP6bis and COP7, the issues of carbon uptake through forest growth, forest soils and agricultural management (Art. 3.4) and through forest activities related to Afforestation, Reforestation and preventing Deforestation (ARD; Art. 3.3), turned out to be a key factor in reaching a final compromise. The author, commissioned via JIN Foundation, supported the calculation process during the negotations. The article describes the backgrounds of the final compromise at COP-6 BIS in Bonn. At COP-7 in Marrakech, a major change occurred at the Russian cap for forest management. This cap has been renegotiated and is now changed to 33 Mton C instead of 17.6 Mton C. Consequently, the total expected contribution of sinks to the Kyoto Protocol will change from 201 Mton C to 216 Mton C". The article can be downloaded from www.northsea.nl/jiq/ (click on "JIQ October 2001")

"Carbon Credits in Ireland: Issues and Potentials"
by Barry, Clinch and Covery. (See: www.coford.ie)
This report, while it was written before the Bonn agreement, provides insights into the nature of emissions trading and trees as carbon sinks, especially in the Irish context. After a brief introduction on the historical developments of the climate change negotiations, the authors cover topics such as: -Trees as carbon sinks: rules and guidelines, calculating carbon, Irish figures; -Trading: examples of initiatives to date, current development at the (EU) member state level, rules and definitions; -Scenarios and potential value of carbon: the value to society, the value to individual forest owner, values to Ireland, likely prices per tonne of CO2 equivalent; and - Conclusions and implications for grower. The authors suggest that growers 1) take carbon sequestration and other environmental impacts into account in all planting decisions; and 2) maintain as good a record as practical of all activities, so as to reap the full benefits of possible carbon credits.

"A large carbon sink in the woody biomass of Northern forests"
by Myneni & Dong et al., (2001), Proceedings of the Nat. Acad. of Sciences USA, Vol. 98(26), pp. 14784-14789. (http://cybele.bu.edu/biomass/biomass.html)
The terrestrial carbon sink, as of yet unidentified, represents 15-30% of annual global emissions of carbon from fossil fuels and industrial activities. Some of the missing carbon is sequestered in vegetation biomass and, under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, industrialized nations can use certain forest biomass sinks to meet their greenhouse gas emissions reduction commitments. Therefore, we analyzed 19 years of data from remote-sensing spacecraft and forest inventories to identify the size and location of such sinks. The results, which cover the years 1981-1999, reveal a picture of biomass carbon gains in Eurasian boreal and North American temperate forests and losses in some Canadian boreal forests. For the 1.42 billion hectares of Northern forests, roughly above the 30th parallel, we estimate the biomass sink to be 0.68 ± 0.34 billion tons carbon per year, of which nearly 70% is in Eurasia, in proportion to its forest area and in disproportion to its biomass carbon pool. The relatively high spatial resolution of these estimates permits direct validation with ground data and contributes to a monitoring program of forest biomass sinks under the Kyoto protocol.

Extreme Responses to Climate Change in Antarctic Lakes: January 2002
By Quayle,Peck,Peat,Ellis-Evans and Harrigan. See full text in Science Magazine at http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/295/5555/645
Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Climate Change: Potential Impacts on Inland Freshwater and Coastal Wetland Ecosystems in the United States.
This new environmental impact series report was released January 29, 2002. Draws on various sources to summarise current understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on U.S. aquatic ecosystems. View press release/full report: http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/aquatic.cfm

(The following publications below were cited by Science magazine for its article on 2001 breakthroughs described above.)
- "Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates," S. W. Pacala et al., Science 292, 2316 (2001).
- "CLIMATE CHANGE: Enhanced: Where Has All the Carbon Gone?," Steven C. Wofsy, Science 292, 2261 (2001).
- "Factors Controlling Long- and Short-Term Sequestration of Atmospheric CO2 in a Mid-latitude Forest," C. C. Barford et al., Science 294, 1688 (2001).
- "Rising CO2 Levels and the Fecundity of Forest Trees," Shannon L. LaDeau and James S. Clark, Science 292, 95 (2001).
- "High CO2 Levels May Give Fast-Growing Trees an Edge," Laura Tangley, Science 292, 36 (2001).


SEMINARS & CONFERENCES

(Canberra, 8 February)
A fruitless quest? The search for the core set of sustainability indicators
Jean Chesson, Bureau of Rural Sciences & Doug Pittard, Natural Resource Management Business Unit, AFFA
Why did the apparently innocuous work on indicators suddenly become a serious issue of contention at last year's meeting of the UN Commission for Sustainable Development? How come we seem to have at least two contenders for the definitive set of national indicators in Australia? Drawing on insights from Jean Chesson's 2001 AFFA Development Award study tour, we discuss the role of sustainability indicators from an AFFA perspective and what we can learn from experiences at the Commission for Sustainable Development, and other agencies such as OECD and FAO. From this we come up with some suggestions for increasing our chances of developing practical and agreed indicators. [Bookings not required. For further details, please call Janet Matthews 02 6272 4197]

(United Kingdom)
"CARBON SEQUESTRATION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND PLANTING FORESTS"
Wednesday 6th February
Royal School of Mines, Prince Consort
Road, London (Imperial College)
More info: CLIM-FO-L@mailserv.fao.org

(New Zealand)
Welcome to the Carbon Constrained World' (February 20th)
Includes speakers covering all business perspectives: Government, sustainable development, Maori, forestry, farming, heavy carbon emitters, and SME's. United Nation's chief scientist and director of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Dr Bob Watson, is to provide the key address. Conference - http://www.ema.co.nz/news_detail.asp?ID=221 Brochure (pdf) http://www.nbr.co.nz/images/3693%20ema_kyoto_jw2.pdf

(Amsterdam)
Emissions Trading Europe 2002' (19-21 February)
The industrial giants, exchanges, traders and brokers at the forefront of this exciting new market place will be meeting up, sharing their experiences, and doing business. The conference, organised by Eyeforenergy, will examine successful emissions trading strategies for energy markets and emitting industries: Chemicals, cement, automotives,paper, steel consumer, manufacturers - and many more. visit www.eyeforenergy.com/emissions

ARTICLES & PRESS RELEASES OF INTEREST

(Canada & Kyoto)
Canada backs Kyoto
Canadian Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal reiterated recently that his country would continue to back the Kyoto treaty on climate change. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Paul Cellucci said on Friday that backing Kyoto would be a drain on the Canadian economy. Cellucci added that he couldn't promise that relations between the two countries wouldn't sour if Canada ratified Kyoto. (Subscribe for more info to DAILY GRIST - grist@gristmagazine.com)
Toronto Star, Canadian Press, 29 Jan 2002 http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_session_id_=dccf107ae313dca7&pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1012258970359 Calgary Herald, 25 Jan 2002:
http://www.canada.com/calgary/story.asp?id={130225B3-047D-439F-B87C-3E6440D59F08}>

(Japan)
ROLE OF FORESTS SEEN LEADING ENVIRONMENTAL DEBATE
Japan Times, Jan. 19, 2002 More: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20020119b5.htm
Forests are now at the forefront of climate-change debate in Japan. Known as "carbon sinks" in the parlance of scientists, negotiators and global warming policy specialists, forests and other carbon dioxide-absorbing ecosystems are recognized as a means of offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. The questions facing Japan on this score are: How much of a role can forests play in paring domestic emissions and how can Tokyo prove or validate this role? During negotiations that wrapped up the Kyoto Protocol last year, Japan, whose backing was imperative for the pact's survival, secured a special political concession on use of its carbon sinks. The upshot of this deal is that Japan can subtract up to 13 million tons of carbon - absorbed by forests as CO2 - from its emissions reduction target. This is no small sum. A 13 megaton ceiling translates to roughly 3.9 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions in 1990. This in turn equates to a hefty two-thirds of the 6 percent reduction it must achieve during the first commitment period of the protocol, from 2008 to 2012. (Full Article: SEE LINK ABOVE]

(Antarctica)
ANTARCTIC STUDY FINDS WARMING CHANGE
New York Times, January 24, 2002, More: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/science/AP-Lake-Warming.html
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A surprise discovery in Antarctic lakes could have important implications for global climate change: As the air got a little warmer, it set off a chain reaction that made the water warm three times faster. That's important because if water gets even a degree warmer, the change can seriously impact plants and animals that live there -- in ways good or bad. Indeed, scientists found these polar lakes rapidly underwent`extreme ecological change' The discovery, published in Friday's edition of 'Science'[see http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/295/5555/645 ], may prove a model for how global warming might ultimately affect waters in other parts of the world. ``I suspect this is an indicator of things to come,'' said lead researcher Lloyd S. Peck of the British Antarctic Survey. (Full text of News Article: SEE LINK ABOVE]

(NASA Press Release, January 2002)
Greenhouse emissions growth slowed over past decade
A new NASA-funded study shows that the rate of growth of greenhouse gas emissions has slowed since its peak in 1980, due in part to international cooperation that led to reduced chlorofluorocarbon use, slower growth of methane, and a steady rate of carbon dioxide emissions.

Researchers have shown that global warming in recent decades has probably been caused by carbon dioxide (CO2), and other greenhouse gases including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon (soot) particles. Overall, growth of emissions has slowed over the past 20 years, with the CFC phase-out being the most important factor, according to the study. "The decrease is due in large part to cooperative international actions of the Montreal Protocol for the phase-out of ozone depleting gases," said Dr. James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York. "But it is also due in part to slower growth of methane and carbon dioxide, for reasons that aren't well understood and need more study."

The findings appeared in the December 18 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (attached in PDF file format). Hansen co-authored the paper with Makiko Sato of Columbia University, New York. The warming effect of methane is about half as large as that of CO2, and when methane increases it also causes a rise in tropospheric ozone levels. Tropospheric ozone is a principal ingredient in "smog," which is harmful to human health and reduces agricultural productivity. The rate of methane growth has slowed during the past decade, and it may be possible to halt its growth entirely and eventually reduce atmospheric amounts, Hansen and Sato suggest. Another warming agent deserving special attention, according to the authors, is soot. Soot is a product of incomplete combustion. Diesel powered trucks and buses are primary sources of airborne soot in the United States. Even larger amounts of soot occur in developing countries.

The study also suggests that reduction of methane emissions and soot could yield a major near term success story in the battle against global warming, thus providing time to work on technologies to reduce future carbon dioxide emissions. Currently, technologies are within reach to reduce other global air pollutants, like methane, in ways that are cheaper and faster than reducing CO2. Though reducing these climate-forcing agents is important, scientists caution that limiting CO2 will still be needed to slow global warming over the next 50 years. Hansen emphasizes that CO2 emissions are the single largest climate forcing, and warns that they need to be slowed soon and eventually curtailed more strongly to stabilize atmospheric conditions and stop global warming. Over the next few decades, Hansen said, it is important to limit emissions of forcing agents other than CO2, to buy time until CO2 emissions can be better managed.

If fossil fuel use continues at today's rates for the next 50 years, and if growth of methane and air pollution is halted, the warming in 50 years will be about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit (0.7 Celsius). That amount of warming is significant, according to Hansen, but it is less than half the warming in the "business-as-usual scenarios that yield the specter of imminent disaster." The climate warming projected in the Institute scenario is about half as large as in the typical scenario from the report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is because the IPCC considers a large range of forcings and models. The warming in the GISS model is similar to the lowest of the IPCC results, despite the fact that the GISS model has a relatively high sensitivity to forcings.
(CSIRO Press Release, January 2002)

Primodial air may have been 'breathable'
The Earth may have had an oxygen-rich atmosphere as long ago as three billion years and possibly even earlier, three leading geologists have claimed. Their theory challenges long-held ideas about when the Earth's atmosphere became enriched with oxygen, and pushes the likely date for formation of an atmosphere resembling today's far back into the early history of the planet. Read more at: http://www.csiro.au/page.asp?type=mediaRelease&id=Prpisoliths

(FASTS Press Release, January 2002)
'TEN TOP SCIENCE ISSUES' FOR 2002
Australia's peak body for working scientists and technologists today (Monday) said it was time for the Government to announce the second stage of its plans for science and technology. Professor Chris Fell, President of the Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies (FASTS), said the Government itself recognises there is more to be done. "We welcomed the Prime Minister's statement on innovation last January as promising start," he said. "Subsequently Mr Howard said the job wasn't complete, and we agree with him." "Now it's time to announce the second step."

Professor Fell was launching FASTS' annual 'Ten Top Issues' list. The list has suggestions to Government on ways it can increase the impact and profile of science in Australia. "Unless we take positive action, our expertise, our capacity for top science and our best people are going to fade away. The process is slow at first, but leads inevitably to a low-income, low-skill economy with a high proportion of the population on social security. Professor Fell said Australia should be aiming to get more young PhD graduates working in industry, to encourage greater invention and to reduce dependence on imported technology.

"Singapore attracts new companies to locate there by offering to pay the salaries and expenses of any young PhD graduates they employ for the first two years. We suggest Australia should be doing the same, but for Australian companies as well as international ones," he said.

TEN TOP ISSUES FOR 2002

1. BRING ON "BACKING AUSTRALIA'S ABILITY"
Speed up the new funding promised to science, so scientists can get to work creating new industries and new jobs.

2. INVEST MORE GOVERNMENT FUNDS IN THE UNIVERSITY SECTOR
Australia's national investment in education is slipping behind other countries. We are in danger of losing brainpower and ending up a nation of low-skill, low-pay industries.

3. ENCOURAGE NEW INDUSTRIES TO RELOCATE TO AUSTRALIA
Meet half the cost of employing new PhD graduates, to encourage companies operating in Australia to compete internationally by employing our best and brightest talent.

4. HECS-FREE EMPLOYMENT FOR SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
Science and maths teachers are in short supply in Australia, but they still are forced to pay higher HECS fees than teachers in other subjects.

5. BIG SCIENCE
Call for new proposals for Major National Research Facilities each year, to allow "Big Science" proposals to be funded.

6. DON'T DISCOURAGE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STUDENTS!
Students studying for careers in science, mathematics and technology fields should not have to pay higher course fees than students studying economics, arts, humanities and social sciences.

7. ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO INVEST IN NEW PRODUCTS
New and better products come from research and development. Companies should be offered financial incentives to invest in more R&D, through a sliding scale of Government support.

8. RESTORE FUNDING FOR CSIRO
CSIRO has lost staff and funding over the last 10 years. Renewed investment will help it carry out important new research for the national good.

9. SCIENCE IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST
Help focus the national Parliament on innovation by establishing a Standing Committee on Science and Innovation, and by providing better high level scientific advice to Parliament.

10. ENCOURAGE SCIENTISTS TO THINK COMMERCIAL
Allow scientists working in publicly funded research organisations like CSIRO to have a stake in their own research, through rewards for successful commercial ventures.

Contacts: Professor Chris Fell (02) 9327 4962, 0438 274 962 OR Toss Gascoigne (02) 6257 2891, 0408 704 442 (Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies)

 

(c) 2002 CRC for Greenhouse Accounting

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2002 - The International Year of EcoTourism